Election Countdown, 107 Days to Go: Joe Biden Passes the Torch
A sitting president changes everything about the race. We'll remember where we were, when we heard this news.
Joe Biden at the beginning of his career in national politics, being sworn in to the US Senate having just turned 30, in 1972. This afternoon, as he nears age 82, President Joe Biden announced the impending end of that career. Good for him. (Getty Images.)
The principle of a time-capsule series is to note events as they occur, before any of us can say how they will “turn out” or what they will “mean.”
In that spirit, a set of quick responses to Joe Biden’s announcement this afternoon that he would step out of the race for another term.
Blogging wasn’t around when, while upstairs in the college newspaper office, I watched Lyndon Johnson announce on TV in 1968 that “I shall not accept and will not seek the nomination of my party for another term as your President.” But it’s around now, at the time of a similar announcement, so here we go.
1) This was a problem only Joe Biden could solve, and he solved it.
As noted in many previous posts, most recently here and here, absolutely no one could force Joe Biden out of a re-election run. He (and Kamala Harris) had swept the primaries and locked up the delegates. Although many people were saying or hinting that Biden’s time had passed, none of them (except Dean Phillips) had stepped up to say “and therefore it’s time for me.” Changing nominees this late in the game is at best a roll of the dice. It would be more like Russian roulette to do so in an open fight against the incumbent—of the kind Biden seemed to angrily invite not long ago. Nearly all Democrats realized that challenging Biden might only weaken him, if—as seemed likely until the last moment—he ended up as the nominee.
So it has been up to Biden all along. And he has now taken a step that is hard for anyone in any circumstance—it’s time to stop driving, it’s time to move to a smaller house, it’s time to step down from a tenured post or as CEO—but with stakes none of the rest of us can imagine.
Great admiration to him.
2) This probably wasn’t why he did it, but he has likely done wonders for his legacy.
Joe Biden probably believes even now that he is best positioned to burnish his legacy by beating Trump a second time and “finishing the job” on economic recovery, environmental and climate protection, strongest-ever relations with allies, and so on.
Many other people, including me, feared that most or all of that legacy was at risk if Biden persisted in imagining that he was the strongest advocate—and that he might open the door to a Trump team determined to move in exactly the opposite direction.
Without going into the details now, I think any fair-minded assessment of Biden’s time as president will say that he was been one of the most effective in that office, ever. Major legislative achievements, despite thin (or no) margins in the Congress. Record-setting job-creation plans and economic-recovery figures. Dramatic new infrastructure and investment projects. Expanded networks of global alliances. Virtually no scandals or in-house feuds, by modern White House standards. A getting-things-done record to match that of any president since World War II.
We don’t know what will happen in the next election, and how lasting these first-term achievements will prove to be. But we can now say that Joe Biden will be ranked on his record of one-term success, without any asterisk of “but then…”
More like Harry Truman, who with low ratings dropped out of the re-election race in 1952 and was eventually known for his many achievements. Less like Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
3) Stop fussing around: It’s time for Kamala Harris.
Two weeks ago, I wrote my proposed version of the statement Joe Biden finally made today. Back then, I suggested he say that his “personal preference”1 would be for Kamala Harris as the next nominee, but that it wasn’t solely up to him and that he invited an open contest.
It’s now two weeks later. There’s that much less time for the party to find its footing. In a statement just after his stepping-aside announcement, Biden said that he was endorsing his loyal vice president. He knows all about the complications of that role—as how competently she has fulfilled it.
For three and a half years, she has been the person the national-security apparatus would turn to if anything happened to the president. She’s become stronger and stronger as a public figure. The party doesn’t have the luxury of wasting time figuring out who else can gain support. For the party it’s time to mobilize behind her, as they had previously mobilized in the “Ridin’ with Biden” era, and see how they can excite new voters and stop Donald Trump.
4) The very stupidest complaint from the GOP: ‘Biden must step down now.’
This is something I heard today from apparatchiks on Fox and anchors on CNN. Namely: If Biden doesn’t want to be president from 2025 through 2029, isn’t he obliged to step down now?
This makes no sense on logical grounds, and would likely backfire on the GOP if they kept pushing it.
—Logic: Biden is saying that he doesn’t feel right about governing through the next four years, until he reaches age 86. Staying in office covers the next six months, during which he will be ages 81 and 82.
— Backfire: If Biden stepped down, Kamala Harris would immediately become the 47th president. Is that the matchup Trump really wants? Against an incumbent president—not a VP, as Harris is now—who is nearly a generation younger than he is, was a successful prosecutor, and can be tough and acid in repartee?
I predict that this complaint will peter out.
5) Who’s on the ticket, with (presumably) Kamala Harris?
The Democrats have a good problem: Too many promising aspirants to allow a snap choice.
I won’t start to enumerate them, because everything is fluid. But until now I had assumed that the 2028 presidential run would be the first time the Democrats could show off people from their next wave of contenders. Now there’s a chance for some of them to make a debut this year.
6) What is going to happen?
No one knows. But on this afternoon, July 21, 2024, we have lived through a moment that will be noted in history. We’ll remember where we were, when. And I think Joe Biden has done something enormously hard, hugely consequential, and of benefit to his party, his cause, and his country.
We’ll see what tomorrow brings.
Version from back then:
If the decision were solely up to me, I would naturally start with Vice President Harris, who has entirely fulfilled my belief that she was the right one to stand at my side, and next in line, on major decisions for our nation. I know something about the challenges of being a vice president. In these four years she has earned my absolute trust, gratitude, respect, and support.
But I know that this next decision cannot be solely up to me. A democratic system requires democratic decisions, above all from the Democratic party. I am prepared to do all in my power to help Americans of my political party, and all parties, to come together in enthusiastic support of its next candidate.
I am saddened by how Biden’s decision was so publicly pushed upon him, especially by the the self-referential pile on from smart people who at times were all too insufferable. I am trying to cultivate acceptance instead of bitterness....and I am pleased to see your support of Harris, and hope that others follow suit vigorously.
I am glad for Joe that he gets to hear all the well deserved tributes while he’s still alive and kicking , even if it’s bittersweet. Quite the historic moment.
Mainstream journalists in recent weeks have made clear how essential it is to have presidential candidates who are not impaired by cognitive problems, difficulties in expressing themselves clearly, and the ravages of time. The intense focus on such concerns, especially by the *Times*, has made clear their central importance. If Trump ends up as the remaining major-party candidate subject to such issues, these journalists will now have a chance -- in the tradition of "both-sides" coverage -- to make clear their sincerity about such matters by focusing equal attention on his behavior. "That's just Trump being Trump" won't remotely suffice (not that it really ever did). Journalism analysts could use this moment to lay down a marker to that effect.