48 Comments

PAT was apparently on a different frequency with tower than the arrival traffic. Whether UHF or just a different VHF. Maybe that’s SOP now for them. But it’s another weak link when I’m unable to listen to the activity around me. Degrades situational awareness something awful.

OK. Time to back slowly and calmly away from the water cooler. NTSB report will be slow coming but those gears do grind fine.

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Yes, thanks. Have an update post coming, along these lines.

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Jim,

As expected, the GOP is placing blame on the Democrats, and Biden, probably Carter, too.

Since you know your way around a Federal Budget better than I, what were the proposed and actual amounts in the Federal Budget for the Dept. of Transportation and the FAA? Going back about 8 years. And, importantly, what was the vote on those budgets? Did the same GOP that is screaming vote against those budgets?

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Good questions. I don't know and will look into this.

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After a series of near-catastrophic mass-casualty incidents on - or in the immediate vicinity of - major commercial airports, a for-real mass casualty event. We’ve pretty much solved the mid-air (in cruise or approach/departure) problem. We need the same kind of tech fix as TCAS on and around airports.

But one thing that might help - although it’ll never happen - is to convert DCA to a single runway with no visual approaches and a rigorously defined departure route for each direction. If the controllers - and potentially conflicting traffic - know that DCA traffic is in very narrow vertical and horizontal corridors, “see and avoid” will become a lot easier - especially the “avoid” part.

And one more thing: given that there will be some reduction in capacity, DCA should be scheduled airlines only. Dulles is not that far away.

Alternatively, we could let Elmo and his very boring company dig a tunnel for self-crashing Teslas between Capitol Hill and Dulles. And then shut DCA and turn it into the park it ought to be.

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Yes. The main argument against one-runway-only for DCA is (as you know) the winds. As I point out in a post I'm about to put up, the winds last night were quite strong — and from 320, which made Runway 33 favorable for regional jets like the one last night. But, also as you know, the shift from an approach path to Runway 1 and an approach to Rwy 33, both from the south, is not that dramatic.

Agree that DCA should be scheduled airlines only.

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The sense I had was that the CRJ was switched to 33 more for spacing than winds; I think the last-minute switch from 01 suggests that. No doubt it’ll be addresses in the final report.

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These helicopter routings are simply insane.

https://www.pprune.org/accidents-close-calls/663888-aa5342-down-dca-11.html#&gid=1&pid=2

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4hEdited

The aftermath of this tragedy has again illustrated the woeful inability of Democratic Party leadership to meet our moment (something on which Brian Beutler has been especially emphatic). In a little more than a week, the Trump administration and its DOGE auxiliaries: installed a wildly incompetent lifelong drunkard as Secretary of Defense; put a former reality-TV star and Fox News host in charge of the Department of Transportation; forced the resignation of the FAA director with no replacement; disbanded an important air-safety advisory committee; and initiated a wide-ranging attack on the civil service, freezing hiring and trying to induce current staff to leave (including workers involved in air-traffic safety). All of this is on top of a spending freeze (again, including public-safety matters) that the President's spokeswoman insists is still in place even though a federal judge has blocked it.

If this kind of event had occurred after any such actions by a Democratic administration, every prominent Republican would be claiming that its leaders were personally responsible. Indeed, we're seeing Republicans do exactly that, even though they are now in charge. Almost no Democratic figures seem to be saying much at all, let alone drawing attention to this wave of blatant Republican politicization and malfeasance. The fecklessness is just stunning.

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Thanks.

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If I’m reading the modeS data correctly from your link PAT was 400 MSL. Route 4 depicted altitude there is at or below 200 MSL. Also but not necessarily related there is a Route 1 course deviation from that depicted at Haines Point. Finally there are now video of the collision online looking SSW and both aircraft are visible. The CRJ is landing lights on which should be expected to (have been) highly visible.

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Yes, I agree, all relevant points.

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If it was a training flight, why at night? In some of the most tightly controlled airspace in the USA?

But, here is the obit of another pilot. Probably could get into Pete's dream military.

https://www.nbcsports.com/olympics/news/iris-cummings-critchell-dies

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Don't know any of the details, but night-training is an important part of "training." (Back in the Before Times of the 1990s, I did a night-flying training flight *right over National Airport,* obviously with an instructor, going up and down the Potomac. You're actually required to do night-training flights with some frequency to maintain different levels of "currency.")

I hadn't known about Iris Cummings. Fascinating.

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I recognize night training is a necessity, I get Marine pilots over my house almost every night, but why there? It just seems extremely risky and brings up memories of the PSA crash in San Diego. A civilian training flight and airliner colliding midair in very crowded airspace.

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I guess because (as with San Diego) so much other military stuff is already there.

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meant "could not get into..."

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I was grateful to find your newsletter in my inbox after seeing the tragic headlines. I appreciate the detailed information you have provided and will offer in the coming months. As a member of the global but small figure skating community, my heart goes out to the families and friends of the skaters, coaches, and parents who were on the plane.

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Thank you. I am so sorry for the loss to your figure skating community. My wife Deb immediately was aware of this angle. (She is a lifelong ice skater, having grown up in Minneapolis and on the shores of Lake Erie, when the Lake would freeze for months at a time. She also remembered, as a child, the terrible crash in Europe that killed the entire US skating team.)

Good wishes to all in your community, among the others affected by this tragedy.

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Found the DCA helicopter route chart here:

https://aeronav.faa.gov/visual/12-26-2024/PDFs/Balt-Wash_Heli.pdf

Presumably PAT was Route 1 Route 4. The recommended (?) altitudes are MSL.

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Yes, thank you. Have seen that chart and will use it in an update.

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Thank you Jim, for your insights. Careless. Reckless and unconcerned. That is the MO of this regime. This morning was the first I had heard as I turn everything off by 9pm, even my phone. There will be international implications given Russian citizens on board.

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Thank you. And, yes, when these tragedies occur, the human networks of connections often extend in surprising ways — as with the Russian citizens on this flight, plus the ramifications for the ice skating world.

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Thank you. Feels like this is the only place to get straight reporting about what happened. Horrifying and heartbreaking including for the men and women in the control towers.

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Appreciate it, thank you.

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💯... and thank you for another peek into the cockpit and tower. I did not see an explicit reference to DOD or military aviation units in that list and have actually long wondered how civilian and government traffic is coordinated in DC as well as in other circumstances where much of both is common. I expect we will learn more from you when the facts of this tragic incident become known.

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Thanks, will look into this further.

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I was certain you'd be writing about this. Looking forward to your further insights.

My first question is, uninformed though it is: what is a Blackhawk doing in busy commercial airspace under any circumstances?

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Will follow up on this today. There is *all kinds* of crossing traffic in that area all the time. Airline. Military. US Park Police, and sometimes DC police. Sometimes rescue and Coast guard craft. The flotilla of USMC helicopters that fly as "Marine One," camoflauging the one carrying the president with some decoys. Etc. It's busy, but this is something different. More details to come.

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Lots of military aircraft in the DCA airspace. You've got Bolling AFB, Andrews AFB, and Ft Belvoir right there. The Pentagon is just upriver. Ft Myer in Arlington also. So a bunch of military aircraft ferrying people about all the time. (Latest reporting is that this was a training flight.) And of course you've got the CAP overhead (at much higher altitudes) 24/7. Flyovers at Arlington aren't uncommon. But it's tightly controlled airspace so this shouldn't be a problem.

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14hEdited

And my second question, at least for the sake of appearances, is: what was Secretary Hegseth doing on Fox denouncing DEI when a helicopter belonging to his department was apparently blundering into civilian air-traffic lanes?

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He is fervently hoping the pilot of the helicopter was black, Latino or other.

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That is the sub-tweeting theme of what Trump in particular has been saying at this live conference.

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Wouldn't the White House have been able to confirm that quickly last night?

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Safe as air traffic typically is, I can't believe the pressure to add traffic to DCA.

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15hEdited

As I've read, that pressure a while ago manifested itself in an effort led by Ted Cruz (R-TX) to add five flights a day to DCA, to which air controllers unsuccessfully objected.

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Jim, thanks for your insights. I’ve read that the controllers Union has alerted about the severe understaffing of the federal 313 facilities. In 2023, the NYT published an investigation. Furthermore, in 2024 some groups pushed for an expansion of flights from and to Reagan National AirPort, while local officials & congress reps in DC, VA and MD opposed such expansion.

According to the NYT, in 2024, there were “at least eight near mid-air collisions at Reagan Airport in 2024, according to FAA data”.

What are your thoughts?

Here is the link to the NYT report.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/21/business/airline-safety-close-calls.html?unlocked_article_code=1.tE4.cNeq.Cps7n2foY90t&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

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Yes, thanks, was following that series back at the time. Will see whether this was a similar case, or something entirely different, or whatever. Appreciate it.

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In that context, it was perhaps a small error of judgment for Trump to initiate a federal hiring freeze that prohibits employing additional controllers.

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Thank you so much for this, Jim. It is a comfort to learn from your expertise and understanding of just how critical sufficient and competent air control is to all of us. I hope you and Deb are well all those miles away.

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Thanks, Susan. We've been on an *entirely different* mission for the past week, in another part of the state. But right now I feel obliged to be watching this live (though fantasy-world) press conference again. We send solidarity across the miles.

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