Konrad Adenauer (5 January 1876 – 19 April 1967) was the first chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany from 1949 to 1963. In 1957, when he was 81 years old, his Christian Democrats under his undisputed leadership scored their biggest win ever. Adenauer, who resigned as Chancellor at the age of 87 and remained head of the governing CDU until his retirement at 90, was often dubbed "Der Alte" ("the old one"). He also remained a Member of the Bundestag for the constituency of Bonn until his death. As of today, Adenauer remains the oldest-ever European head of government. And, of course, many judged him as being too old from the get go. His experience was instrumental to shape a healthy democracy out of a country in unprecedented ruins – politically, morally, financially, physically.
Your points about why Democrats don't run against Biden were eye opening for me. You helped me finally understand why his low favorability ratings don't translate into a movement to replace him. When I mentioned your take at a family and friends holiday dinner over the weekend, there was a lot of head nodding around the table. One millennial, referring to the Sanders campaign, added that the DNC can also pull institutional strings to help the incumbent stay in power.
But--and I say this with great appreciation and admiration for what Biden has accomplished--what if he and the Democratic party leadership are suffering from a kind of mass hallucination? I get a sense that many, many Americans, are seriously dissatisfied with their quality of life and with the economic stresses they are living with daily, exacerbated by last year's inflation. Could this be why Biden's favorability rating doesn't seem to reflect the progress he has made? And if this were indeed the case, what does it mean for his reelection? Not that people would flock to Trump. But could it mean that people might sit out the election, or in any event, not support Biden with the enthusiasm necessary to get out enough votes in those tough purple states?
I remember the "Daisy" ad that LBJ used against Goldwater--the little girl with the flower in the foreground, the countdown, then the nuclear weapon detonating in the background. Before the '24 election is over with, I wonder whether the Democrats will have to resort to something analagous.
I think that Biden is an exceptionally good President. I think he is likely to continue to be one for a second term … if he wins. However, actuarial data indicates that 1/3 of American men who share Biden’s birthdate and are alive on January 20th, 2025, will be dead by the time a second Biden term would end. Never-the-less I’ll support him enthusiastically.
However, I do not think he should run because he is not a particularly strong candidate. Age will continue to be an issue, Harris, a good VP who would make a good President, is not a great candidate. Candidates for VP rarely have much effect on who wins the general, but sometimes, and in this case given Biden’s age, this might be an election when it does. Niki Haley is already running against Harris.
I expect Biden to run. And I think Trump is odds on favorite to be his opponent, although that is far from a certainty. Trump is likely the weakest candidate against Biden. Which does not mean he cannot win. The country is too partisan, closely divided, and the Electoral College advantage goes to Republicans. Any significant extraneous incident or factor can swing the election against any candidate no matter how good. And a ‘third party’ candidate like Cornel West can be a real spoiler.
I say again, Biden is too old to run for reelection not because he’s too old to be a very effective President. He’s too old because that makes him a weak candidate. All of the Republicans think he’s too old, and a significant majority of independents and a majority of Democrats think he’s too old. It doesn’t matter what we think. It only matters what they think.
Here’s a link to a podcast with Bill Crystal and James Carville that I find on point: James Carville on Biden, Trump, the Democrats, and 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48WGSBcaxmY Carville states the obvious. In every election the sum of various demographics equals 100. If Joe loses 2 or 3 points with young voters, and loses 2-3 points of the black vote to Cornel West, what demographic/s make up those losses? There aren’t enough 65+ college educated folk to make up the difference. I assume that blue collar Joe from Scranton thinks that he can do that with non-college educated labor. IDK.
There is one kinda’ nice way to have another Democrat as the nominee. Biden doesn’t run. All of the primary candidates will praise him to the hilt. All of the candidates, a very deep bench, will run on Biden’s accomplishments and agenda. And Biden’s approval rating goes up immediately making him a stronger voice from the bully pulpit for the remainder of his term.
I don’t see a shortened primary campaign being that bad, even if it ends in an open convention. Whitmer, Shapiro, Klobuchar, Harris, Newsome et al jockeying to form a ticket. Wouldn’t that be a hoot. All kinds of energy and excitement to kick of a general election campaign.
Very unlikely to happen I know. But one can dream.
I’m reading “No Ordinary Time” by Doris Kearns Goodwin. I’m developing a much better understanding of FDR and what he had to go through, including the impact of his ill health. Thanks for this cogent article reminding us of the importance of thinking through potential consequences ahead of time. Also recently picked up a copy of your book “Breaking the News.” It makes watching the Sunday talk shows a lot more interesting!
Thanks for your reply, Jim. How funny to hear that David Ignatius is our age; I thought he was older! I suppose I thought that because he comes across as so authoritative. Have a good evening.
David is our contemporary (and, a long-time close friend). He was coming onto the paper when I was the editor. It goes back to then — and he has an augustness that we all merely aspire to!
[To onlookers: Orin and I were comrades on the Jimmy Carter campaign and during his administration. Two months from tomorrow, October 1, 2023, is Jimmy Carter's 99th birthday. As I mention in this week's On the Media program, I remember the campaign-trail celebration for Carter's 52nd birthday one month before he was elected president. Back then, with the wisdom that comes in the mid-20s, I was thinking: All these guys are so old.]
A wise piece, Jim, and very timely, given David Ignatius’s article in The Washington Post. In the real world, there’s no alternative to the current Democratic ticket, especially given the shysters on the other side. Let’s hope that it works.
David Ignatius is a friend of very long standing. I came to know him about the time I met you, when we were all in our late teens. I agree with him on a lot of things, but not this.
Sep 16, 2023·edited Sep 16, 2023Liked by James Fallows
- another excellent article, thank you!
- It is said that the baby boomer generation is remaking every age that they are passing through.
- Seniors are in much better shape at 70+ because of good medical care and prevention.
- A lot of us never smoked cigarettes, something pushed on us by corporations that told our mothers that smoking was glamorous. My father was given free cigarettes in WWII combat and had a lifelong tobacco addiction, courtesy of the US Army.
- How grateful we all were when Joe got elected! Let's all imagine if the last 4 years were trump-led. What a horror to imagine that.
- On the other hand, JF, you worked with Ralph Nader who was prevented from even speaking at the DNC when he wanted to run for office.
- Why are we trapped into what Joe Biden is doing, no matter how great he is?
- What about Corey Booker, Deval Patrick of Mass, and the many other exciting Dem candidates? These are really exciting younger politicians who are completely ignored. The Dem political machine seems unable to move on in any way, and the grassroots organizing needs to be effective to sign up young voters.
- Why aren't young people outraged that their future is being stolen by the war industry, the corporations, what we used to call the Establishment? Young people inherit a world that our generation wasted, in spite of herculean efforts to save the environment starting in 1970 Earth Day 1.
- The young people who should be out protesting that the olds are ripping off their future, like we did with vietnam, seem to be wholly co-opted into the Dream of the Planet (4 Agreements, Don Miguel Ruiz). Why do we have to have endless war, endless greed, endless exploitation of everything for money. We seem to be unable to protest or evolve. Thus is the power of the ruling class worldwide, that seems to have absconded with the world's wealth, power, and resources in the most selfish act imaginable at this time. (see Robert Reich about how the most of the world's wealth migrated to the 1% worldwide during the covid emergency, another unethical act so horrible that it is hard to even imagine what the motivation could be.) The ghouls of our world feeding on the poor.
- I enjoy sharing quotes! Having gone to college, I can spin out 100 pages of original thought in about an hour LOL. But with limited space here, it is fun to see what quotes I can find on the internet.
- thank you for sharing your thoughts with us, JF!
- bee safe everyone on the Coast of Maine Downeast, and all those in Lee's path
- “Most people don’t grow up. Most people age. They find parking spaces, honor their credit cards, get married, have children, and call that maturity. What that is, is aging.” Maya Angelou
- “Women may be the one group that grows more radical with age.” Gloria Steinem
- “You don’t stop laughing when you grow old, you grow old when you stop laughing.” George Bernard Shaw
- “Too many people, when they get old, think that they have to live by the calendar.” John Glenn
- “Nature gives you the face you have at twenty; it is up to you to merit the face you have at fifty.” Coco Chanel
- “I have reached an age when, if someone tells me to wear socks, I don’t have to.” Albert Einstein
- “Aging is not lost youth but a new stage of opportunity and strength.” Betty Friedan
- “The most important thing I can tell you about aging is this: If you really feel that you want to have an off-the-shoulder blouse and some big beads and thong sandals and a dirndl skirt and a magnolia in your hair, do it. Even if you’re wrinkled.” Maya Angelou
- “There is a fountain of youth: it is your mind, your talents, the creativity you bring to your life and the lives of people you love. When you learn to tap this source, you will truly have defeated age.” Sophia Loren
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- To all, I would say how mistaken they are when they think that they stop falling in love when they grow old, without knowing that they grow old when they stop falling in love.” Gabriel García Márquez
On the question of Why Not [Deval Patrick; Gretchen Whitmer; Amy Klobuchar; Gavin Newsom; Sheldon Whitehouse; Stacey Abrams; Gina Raimondo; Pete B; name your next 50 people]: It is a very good thing for the Democratic party that they have *so many* talented people in the next generation, and generations. That's a good thing for the party, and for governance, and in contrast to the way the GOP seems to be burning its seed corn (of non-Boebert-like young figures).
The very practical, real-world problem is what it would mean to displace, challenge, or replace Joe Biden / Kamala Harris **in this coming election.** As you know, there just isn't any "nice," non-bridge-burning way to do so.
So we look forward to all the 30s/40s/50s/beyond talent that will claim its place on the national stage after election day 2024. And (in my view) we face the reality that Biden / Harris is, as of now, a stronger Democratic / anti-Trump ticket than any other in 2024.
Sep 16, 2023·edited Sep 16, 2023Liked by James Fallows
Thank you for your kind reply and special insights, it is maximum fun to interact with a great journalist!
I support Biden/Harris, also, "I'm with her," the President Hillary Clinton we were all toasting right up until the last minute election night. The ruskies stole our election outright, we now know.
Is it really true that not one of the other talented Dems could win? What about Gavin Newsom?
I think Joe Biden is a fantastic President, his wife is great as is VP Harris. But the talent out there in the Dem party is so profound. Would it be legal to do job-sharing? ;)
The real problem is: very very low voter registration rates especially among the young who complain but will not bother to go to the polls.
What will solve this is simple: a voting holiday where everyone gets a ticket to a free Starbucks. Give away a coffee and people will line up to vote, getting something free as an incentive creates huge turnout.
Have voting parties and rides to the polls. Why do we have such low turnout? One of the biggest problems is mere convenience. Voting holiday with incentives, recruitment and rides to polls could turn the tide.
thank you for sharing your thoughts with us!
also your friends Downeast in Eastport appear to have lost power in the entire town, at least as of this morning's news.
Yes, we have heard from our friends in Eastport. Apparently Meteorologist Jim Cantore, of Weather Channel fame, has booked at room at The Commons in Eastport, where we have stayed so many times.
Agree with you about the abundant talent-supply among the next generation of Dems. That is a good thing. And *for the moment,* the best prospects in 2024 are with the existing team. In my view.
Agree also on new measures to increase the attractiveness and ease of voting. (As much of the country pushes in the opposite direction.)
It's a legitimate question about ability to serve, someone's age that is, especially in areas of significant responsibility. As to President Biden's fitness, I think you answered it well. The proof is really in the pudding. He's done more than a decent job, just look at his record and what he's accomplished in the midst of a vicious culture war. There really is no reason to expect any different in the next four or five years, amidst a gaffe or two. They happen to all of us regardless of age.
As to keeping VP Harris on the ticket, my answer would have been, simply, "She's doing a decent job, so why complicate matters." But that's just me and what do I know of real realpolitik anyway. Take care . . .
Yes, thank you! And I think your point about VP Harris is exactly right. It would be an extraordinary event to substitute-out a VP. The only two cases I can think of, off the top of my head, are (1) Lincoln getting Andrew Johnson in place of Hannibal Hamlin, mainly because of Civil War-era birthing pains for his nascent Republican party, and (2) FDR changing from Garner, to Wallace, to Truman through his four terms.
It's not a normal thing.
And the realpolitik of it within the party would be even worse.
Sep 16, 2023·edited Sep 16, 2023Liked by James Fallows
Well said, Jim, very very well said.
The media's obsession with Biden's age (and by extension their excoriation of Harris) is deeply stupid. But you know what? I don't mind it at all. Have at it, folks!
Why? Because it's a *temporary* obsession. They'll get tired of it, as they get tired of all their pet rocks. If this were September 2024, it would be a serious problem. But it's 2023, and they can only wring their hands and repair to their fainting couches for so long before even they get tired of this fixation. Then they'll go on to other things. And they'll note that Biden isn't the only old candidate, which will drain the issue of any residual interest.
So unless Biden injects any new interest in the question -- such as, heaven forbid, falling and breaking his hip next year -- I am certain it will be so thoroughly masticated an issue that no one will care any longer.
So get it out of your system *now* folks. And, say by Jan. 1, be ready to turn to more serious questions.
I’m a recovering lifelong Republican, and a Biden skeptic even though I voted for him in ‘20 and almost certainly will in ‘24 because Trump, and next-up DeSantis, are such awful choices. My beef with Biden isn’t his age. I watched MSNBC make a huge deal over Trump’s supposed frailties, including his much-disected walk along a ramp at some military ceremony, and I put both sets of supposed frailties in approximately the same box.
My beef with Biden is that I don’t see him publicly advocating enough. Leadership. I’ve been a CEO for the past 25 years, and the most important job a leader has is communicating a vision. People need to know what Biden thinks is important, what his values are, what his boundaries are. Spoken plainly, over and over again. To the public eye, IMO, Biden lets himself get run over, again and again. He’s got the most wide-reaching, influential, and powerful pulpit in the world, and he doesn’t use it.
Biden should be telling people how Trumpism borders up against authoritarianism, and why that’s so important. He should be calling out the false prophets like Cruz, DeSantis, Hawley, and others - as Romney has just done, but for the masses. I don’t agree with a lot of Biden’s policies, but I do think he’s a good man. I also don’t think he’s too old. I just don’t think he’s up to the moment.
So im going to swim against your current and suggest that it would be worth it to suffer the pains of a primary season to find someone who is a) more aggressive, and b) a better communicator. There are no shortage of them in the party of donkeys. Newsome is angling for the role, and the slick image notwithstanding, he’d be a fit. From the last cycle, I also like Klobachar. And many others.
My point is, we need leadership, and the non-confrontational dealmaker, when nobody wants to make a deal, type leadership I think is not going to advance our national interests. It’ll be four more years of, at best, stasis.
Well put. I will try to come back to this in a more "serious" way soon. But for now:
1) Biden's speeches, in my view, are generally "better than they sound." (Cf the old line about Wagner's music being "better than it sounds.") They have actually advanced arguments with a kind of rhetoric that matches Biden's tone and stage in life.
2) The problem with a primary season, in my view, is that it would *inevitably* open more wounds and create more rancor than it could heal or unify. I could be wrong on this. But unless one can think of a *specific* Democrat who could lead this campaign in a way that would increase, rather than reduce, the odds of beating Trump, I think it is a risky bet.
Sep 16, 2023·edited Sep 16, 2023Liked by James Fallows
"People need to know what Biden thinks is important, what his values are, what his boundaries are. Spoken plainly, over and over again."
I'd be interested in Jim's view of this, from his experience as a one-time White House speechwriter.
My take is that Presidents have to husband their efforts for speaking directly to the public. Most of the time the public isn't listening and doesn't care so his efforts will fall flat and he'll look weak and out of touch. The campaign hasn't really started yet and there will be plenty of opportunities for Biden to make his case next year. I trust he will do that and we will not lack for chances to hear him. But now? Why?
Yes, I'd like to hear from James on this, too. I respect your opinion, though I'd like to address the specific issue of timing of communications that you raised.
Perversely, I had Trump in mind as an example of a good communicator when I wrote this. For all his galaxy of faults, Trump may be the best person on earth at making his viewpoints widely known and adopted. Thirty percent of America believes what he says, not because of the logic of it, but because they believe in him and will follow where he leads. On the subjects of the Ukranian "perfect call", the "stolen election", and Democrats (and anyone else he doesn't like) being corrupt: his message is simple and repeated over and over and over. So often that a position on these issues is just taken as an article of faith by the faithful. He's a tsunami. How do you fight that? Certainly not by staying silent. IMO, anyhow. I don't think it's possible to overcommunicate mission and values; one looks for every opportunity to do so as a leader.
In a recent interview on NPR, Steve Inskeep asked his guest whether President Biden is too old to run for re-election (I wish I knew who that was -- I tried to find it on the NPR website but failed). The two of them compared notes on why he shouldn't, mainly they thought it obvious that he is too old. What I asked myself was: Where is two-sidism when we need it? From where I sit, we are LUCKY to have Mr. Biden as President, and I for one look forward to his serving a second term. I'd say he has been brilliant when it comes to getting ANY of what he wants from that recalcitrant and boorish posse in the House (I am happy about that because what Biden wants is, of course, virtually the same as what *I* want -- because I too am a Democrat and stand for the same things Joe Biden stands for). Is there ANY other politician who could have blazed a trail so defiant of stupidity and short-sightedness as that of our very own "Joey" has done under the same burdensome circumstances? With bipartisan style and lack of bitterness, even. I have listened many times to Michelle Obama's reading of her book, BECOMING. Every time I get to her recalling the speech then-Senator Obama gave at the 2004 Democratic Party convention and the reception of it by the crowd, I still tear up when she states she could almost detect the crowd itself whispering, saying, shouting: "More of this ... more of this ... more of this." That is precisely how I feel about President Biden's current term in office: more of THIS.
Thank you. I heard an NPR interview between Inskeep and Rep Dean Phillips of Minnesota — whom I mention in a footnote. He is the one elected Democrat from the House or Senate who (as best I can tell) has said Biden should step down. But not even Phillips is proposing to run against him. As a matter of causation, no one can "prove" that a primary-election challenge to an incumbent leads to defeat in the general election. But that is certainly how the historical pattern has run. (1968, w McCarthy and RFK against LBJ, though extreme circumstances that time. 1980, with RFK against Jimmy Carter. 1992, with Buchanan against GHWB.)
It could be that the cycles of "conventional wisdom," and of what seems to be "yesterday's idea," could be turning in Biden's favor. So that ten months from now, when the campaigns are really getting serious, it will seem cliched to say "Biden is too old" and can instead seem like a fresh angle to say "actually he's using age and experience to his advantage."
Sep 15, 2023·edited Sep 15, 2023Liked by James Fallows
I think that Biden, like Nancy Pelosi, has learned enormously from his experience. He is the best president since FDR, by a long shot. LBJ might have been the best but for Vietnam, which is a very big "but". And RFK never got a chance. And I say that as someone who thinks Biden is doing a terrible job on immigration, which is my pet issue, as I think the US population has grown well beyond sustainability, and I learned environmental science from John Holdren, in a class at UC Berkeley in 1975.
Biden is not too old. He crushed the State of the Union, all 90 minutes of it. He ran circles around McCarthy over the debt ceiling, pissing off the entire GOP. And on most issues, his judgment has been superb.
And he's just circled the world in five days, meeting with leaders, strengthening ties, and boosting our country's strength abroad.
How does an 80 year old man accomplish all this with such aplomb? Maybe he manages to have too much fun driving that Corvette his father gave him for his first wedding, and that just feeds his strengths!
Thank you! And, yes, inter alia I agree entirely about Biden's latest SOTU, which was well written and well delivered. (As a side note, I don't know who Biden's writers are, but they and he have found a very effective way to sound "eloquent" without seeming "speechy" or grandiloquent. )
Entire agree about outfoxing McCarthy and the GOP — and in general making judgment calls that look better over time rather than worse.
Konrad Adenauer (5 January 1876 – 19 April 1967) was the first chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany from 1949 to 1963. In 1957, when he was 81 years old, his Christian Democrats under his undisputed leadership scored their biggest win ever. Adenauer, who resigned as Chancellor at the age of 87 and remained head of the governing CDU until his retirement at 90, was often dubbed "Der Alte" ("the old one"). He also remained a Member of the Bundestag for the constituency of Bonn until his death. As of today, Adenauer remains the oldest-ever European head of government. And, of course, many judged him as being too old from the get go. His experience was instrumental to shape a healthy democracy out of a country in unprecedented ruins – politically, morally, financially, physically.
Your points about why Democrats don't run against Biden were eye opening for me. You helped me finally understand why his low favorability ratings don't translate into a movement to replace him. When I mentioned your take at a family and friends holiday dinner over the weekend, there was a lot of head nodding around the table. One millennial, referring to the Sanders campaign, added that the DNC can also pull institutional strings to help the incumbent stay in power.
But--and I say this with great appreciation and admiration for what Biden has accomplished--what if he and the Democratic party leadership are suffering from a kind of mass hallucination? I get a sense that many, many Americans, are seriously dissatisfied with their quality of life and with the economic stresses they are living with daily, exacerbated by last year's inflation. Could this be why Biden's favorability rating doesn't seem to reflect the progress he has made? And if this were indeed the case, what does it mean for his reelection? Not that people would flock to Trump. But could it mean that people might sit out the election, or in any event, not support Biden with the enthusiasm necessary to get out enough votes in those tough purple states?
I remember the "Daisy" ad that LBJ used against Goldwater--the little girl with the flower in the foreground, the countdown, then the nuclear weapon detonating in the background. Before the '24 election is over with, I wonder whether the Democrats will have to resort to something analagous.
I think that Biden is an exceptionally good President. I think he is likely to continue to be one for a second term … if he wins. However, actuarial data indicates that 1/3 of American men who share Biden’s birthdate and are alive on January 20th, 2025, will be dead by the time a second Biden term would end. Never-the-less I’ll support him enthusiastically.
However, I do not think he should run because he is not a particularly strong candidate. Age will continue to be an issue, Harris, a good VP who would make a good President, is not a great candidate. Candidates for VP rarely have much effect on who wins the general, but sometimes, and in this case given Biden’s age, this might be an election when it does. Niki Haley is already running against Harris.
I expect Biden to run. And I think Trump is odds on favorite to be his opponent, although that is far from a certainty. Trump is likely the weakest candidate against Biden. Which does not mean he cannot win. The country is too partisan, closely divided, and the Electoral College advantage goes to Republicans. Any significant extraneous incident or factor can swing the election against any candidate no matter how good. And a ‘third party’ candidate like Cornel West can be a real spoiler.
I say again, Biden is too old to run for reelection not because he’s too old to be a very effective President. He’s too old because that makes him a weak candidate. All of the Republicans think he’s too old, and a significant majority of independents and a majority of Democrats think he’s too old. It doesn’t matter what we think. It only matters what they think.
Here’s a link to a podcast with Bill Crystal and James Carville that I find on point: James Carville on Biden, Trump, the Democrats, and 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48WGSBcaxmY Carville states the obvious. In every election the sum of various demographics equals 100. If Joe loses 2 or 3 points with young voters, and loses 2-3 points of the black vote to Cornel West, what demographic/s make up those losses? There aren’t enough 65+ college educated folk to make up the difference. I assume that blue collar Joe from Scranton thinks that he can do that with non-college educated labor. IDK.
There is one kinda’ nice way to have another Democrat as the nominee. Biden doesn’t run. All of the primary candidates will praise him to the hilt. All of the candidates, a very deep bench, will run on Biden’s accomplishments and agenda. And Biden’s approval rating goes up immediately making him a stronger voice from the bully pulpit for the remainder of his term.
I don’t see a shortened primary campaign being that bad, even if it ends in an open convention. Whitmer, Shapiro, Klobuchar, Harris, Newsome et al jockeying to form a ticket. Wouldn’t that be a hoot. All kinds of energy and excitement to kick of a general election campaign.
Very unlikely to happen I know. But one can dream.
Thank you.
I'm grateful for your time, attention, and support.
I’m reading “No Ordinary Time” by Doris Kearns Goodwin. I’m developing a much better understanding of FDR and what he had to go through, including the impact of his ill health. Thanks for this cogent article reminding us of the importance of thinking through potential consequences ahead of time. Also recently picked up a copy of your book “Breaking the News.” It makes watching the Sunday talk shows a lot more interesting!
Thank you! Appreciate it on both fronts.
Thanks for your reply, Jim. How funny to hear that David Ignatius is our age; I thought he was older! I suppose I thought that because he comes across as so authoritative. Have a good evening.
David is our contemporary (and, a long-time close friend). He was coming onto the paper when I was the editor. It goes back to then — and he has an augustness that we all merely aspire to!
So incredibly wise.
Orin, sincere thanks.
[To onlookers: Orin and I were comrades on the Jimmy Carter campaign and during his administration. Two months from tomorrow, October 1, 2023, is Jimmy Carter's 99th birthday. As I mention in this week's On the Media program, I remember the campaign-trail celebration for Carter's 52nd birthday one month before he was elected president. Back then, with the wisdom that comes in the mid-20s, I was thinking: All these guys are so old.]
A wise piece, Jim, and very timely, given David Ignatius’s article in The Washington Post. In the real world, there’s no alternative to the current Democratic ticket, especially given the shysters on the other side. Let’s hope that it works.
Bruce, thank you.
David Ignatius is a friend of very long standing. I came to know him about the time I met you, when we were all in our late teens. I agree with him on a lot of things, but not this.
Great column.
Thank you. I really appreciate it.
I am so grateful for this piece and hope that every Democrat(& so-called Independents) will read it and understand how important it is.
You make every point so cogently. Thank you.
Thank you!
- another excellent article, thank you!
- It is said that the baby boomer generation is remaking every age that they are passing through.
- Seniors are in much better shape at 70+ because of good medical care and prevention.
- A lot of us never smoked cigarettes, something pushed on us by corporations that told our mothers that smoking was glamorous. My father was given free cigarettes in WWII combat and had a lifelong tobacco addiction, courtesy of the US Army.
- How grateful we all were when Joe got elected! Let's all imagine if the last 4 years were trump-led. What a horror to imagine that.
- On the other hand, JF, you worked with Ralph Nader who was prevented from even speaking at the DNC when he wanted to run for office.
- Why are we trapped into what Joe Biden is doing, no matter how great he is?
- What about Corey Booker, Deval Patrick of Mass, and the many other exciting Dem candidates? These are really exciting younger politicians who are completely ignored. The Dem political machine seems unable to move on in any way, and the grassroots organizing needs to be effective to sign up young voters.
- Why aren't young people outraged that their future is being stolen by the war industry, the corporations, what we used to call the Establishment? Young people inherit a world that our generation wasted, in spite of herculean efforts to save the environment starting in 1970 Earth Day 1.
- The young people who should be out protesting that the olds are ripping off their future, like we did with vietnam, seem to be wholly co-opted into the Dream of the Planet (4 Agreements, Don Miguel Ruiz). Why do we have to have endless war, endless greed, endless exploitation of everything for money. We seem to be unable to protest or evolve. Thus is the power of the ruling class worldwide, that seems to have absconded with the world's wealth, power, and resources in the most selfish act imaginable at this time. (see Robert Reich about how the most of the world's wealth migrated to the 1% worldwide during the covid emergency, another unethical act so horrible that it is hard to even imagine what the motivation could be.) The ghouls of our world feeding on the poor.
- I enjoy sharing quotes! Having gone to college, I can spin out 100 pages of original thought in about an hour LOL. But with limited space here, it is fun to see what quotes I can find on the internet.
- thank you for sharing your thoughts with us, JF!
- bee safe everyone on the Coast of Maine Downeast, and all those in Lee's path
- “Most people don’t grow up. Most people age. They find parking spaces, honor their credit cards, get married, have children, and call that maturity. What that is, is aging.” Maya Angelou
- “Women may be the one group that grows more radical with age.” Gloria Steinem
- “You don’t stop laughing when you grow old, you grow old when you stop laughing.” George Bernard Shaw
- “Too many people, when they get old, think that they have to live by the calendar.” John Glenn
- “Nature gives you the face you have at twenty; it is up to you to merit the face you have at fifty.” Coco Chanel
- “I have reached an age when, if someone tells me to wear socks, I don’t have to.” Albert Einstein
- “Aging is not lost youth but a new stage of opportunity and strength.” Betty Friedan
- “The most important thing I can tell you about aging is this: If you really feel that you want to have an off-the-shoulder blouse and some big beads and thong sandals and a dirndl skirt and a magnolia in your hair, do it. Even if you’re wrinkled.” Maya Angelou
- “There is a fountain of youth: it is your mind, your talents, the creativity you bring to your life and the lives of people you love. When you learn to tap this source, you will truly have defeated age.” Sophia Loren
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- To all, I would say how mistaken they are when they think that they stop falling in love when they grow old, without knowing that they grow old when they stop falling in love.” Gabriel García Márquez
https://www.agingabundantly.com/best-aging-quotes
Diana, as always, sincere thanks.
On the question of Why Not [Deval Patrick; Gretchen Whitmer; Amy Klobuchar; Gavin Newsom; Sheldon Whitehouse; Stacey Abrams; Gina Raimondo; Pete B; name your next 50 people]: It is a very good thing for the Democratic party that they have *so many* talented people in the next generation, and generations. That's a good thing for the party, and for governance, and in contrast to the way the GOP seems to be burning its seed corn (of non-Boebert-like young figures).
The very practical, real-world problem is what it would mean to displace, challenge, or replace Joe Biden / Kamala Harris **in this coming election.** As you know, there just isn't any "nice," non-bridge-burning way to do so.
So we look forward to all the 30s/40s/50s/beyond talent that will claim its place on the national stage after election day 2024. And (in my view) we face the reality that Biden / Harris is, as of now, a stronger Democratic / anti-Trump ticket than any other in 2024.
Thank you for your kind reply and special insights, it is maximum fun to interact with a great journalist!
I support Biden/Harris, also, "I'm with her," the President Hillary Clinton we were all toasting right up until the last minute election night. The ruskies stole our election outright, we now know.
Is it really true that not one of the other talented Dems could win? What about Gavin Newsom?
I think Joe Biden is a fantastic President, his wife is great as is VP Harris. But the talent out there in the Dem party is so profound. Would it be legal to do job-sharing? ;)
The real problem is: very very low voter registration rates especially among the young who complain but will not bother to go to the polls.
What will solve this is simple: a voting holiday where everyone gets a ticket to a free Starbucks. Give away a coffee and people will line up to vote, getting something free as an incentive creates huge turnout.
Have voting parties and rides to the polls. Why do we have such low turnout? One of the biggest problems is mere convenience. Voting holiday with incentives, recruitment and rides to polls could turn the tide.
thank you for sharing your thoughts with us!
also your friends Downeast in Eastport appear to have lost power in the entire town, at least as of this morning's news.
stay safe, fellow Mainiacs at the coast!
Yes, we have heard from our friends in Eastport. Apparently Meteorologist Jim Cantore, of Weather Channel fame, has booked at room at The Commons in Eastport, where we have stayed so many times.
Agree with you about the abundant talent-supply among the next generation of Dems. That is a good thing. And *for the moment,* the best prospects in 2024 are with the existing team. In my view.
Agree also on new measures to increase the attractiveness and ease of voting. (As much of the country pushes in the opposite direction.)
Thank you! Looking forward to the next cool article!
17 foot waves off Eastport area yesterday in the storm, wow! that would be quite a ride if you are in a lobster boat!
It's a legitimate question about ability to serve, someone's age that is, especially in areas of significant responsibility. As to President Biden's fitness, I think you answered it well. The proof is really in the pudding. He's done more than a decent job, just look at his record and what he's accomplished in the midst of a vicious culture war. There really is no reason to expect any different in the next four or five years, amidst a gaffe or two. They happen to all of us regardless of age.
As to keeping VP Harris on the ticket, my answer would have been, simply, "She's doing a decent job, so why complicate matters." But that's just me and what do I know of real realpolitik anyway. Take care . . .
Yes, thank you! And I think your point about VP Harris is exactly right. It would be an extraordinary event to substitute-out a VP. The only two cases I can think of, off the top of my head, are (1) Lincoln getting Andrew Johnson in place of Hannibal Hamlin, mainly because of Civil War-era birthing pains for his nascent Republican party, and (2) FDR changing from Garner, to Wallace, to Truman through his four terms.
It's not a normal thing.
And the realpolitik of it within the party would be even worse.
Well said, Jim, very very well said.
The media's obsession with Biden's age (and by extension their excoriation of Harris) is deeply stupid. But you know what? I don't mind it at all. Have at it, folks!
Why? Because it's a *temporary* obsession. They'll get tired of it, as they get tired of all their pet rocks. If this were September 2024, it would be a serious problem. But it's 2023, and they can only wring their hands and repair to their fainting couches for so long before even they get tired of this fixation. Then they'll go on to other things. And they'll note that Biden isn't the only old candidate, which will drain the issue of any residual interest.
So unless Biden injects any new interest in the question -- such as, heaven forbid, falling and breaking his hip next year -- I am certain it will be so thoroughly masticated an issue that no one will care any longer.
So get it out of your system *now* folks. And, say by Jan. 1, be ready to turn to more serious questions.
Well argued — the "burn itself out" point. I think you are right.
I’m a recovering lifelong Republican, and a Biden skeptic even though I voted for him in ‘20 and almost certainly will in ‘24 because Trump, and next-up DeSantis, are such awful choices. My beef with Biden isn’t his age. I watched MSNBC make a huge deal over Trump’s supposed frailties, including his much-disected walk along a ramp at some military ceremony, and I put both sets of supposed frailties in approximately the same box.
My beef with Biden is that I don’t see him publicly advocating enough. Leadership. I’ve been a CEO for the past 25 years, and the most important job a leader has is communicating a vision. People need to know what Biden thinks is important, what his values are, what his boundaries are. Spoken plainly, over and over again. To the public eye, IMO, Biden lets himself get run over, again and again. He’s got the most wide-reaching, influential, and powerful pulpit in the world, and he doesn’t use it.
Biden should be telling people how Trumpism borders up against authoritarianism, and why that’s so important. He should be calling out the false prophets like Cruz, DeSantis, Hawley, and others - as Romney has just done, but for the masses. I don’t agree with a lot of Biden’s policies, but I do think he’s a good man. I also don’t think he’s too old. I just don’t think he’s up to the moment.
So im going to swim against your current and suggest that it would be worth it to suffer the pains of a primary season to find someone who is a) more aggressive, and b) a better communicator. There are no shortage of them in the party of donkeys. Newsome is angling for the role, and the slick image notwithstanding, he’d be a fit. From the last cycle, I also like Klobachar. And many others.
My point is, we need leadership, and the non-confrontational dealmaker, when nobody wants to make a deal, type leadership I think is not going to advance our national interests. It’ll be four more years of, at best, stasis.
Well put. I will try to come back to this in a more "serious" way soon. But for now:
1) Biden's speeches, in my view, are generally "better than they sound." (Cf the old line about Wagner's music being "better than it sounds.") They have actually advanced arguments with a kind of rhetoric that matches Biden's tone and stage in life.
2) The problem with a primary season, in my view, is that it would *inevitably* open more wounds and create more rancor than it could heal or unify. I could be wrong on this. But unless one can think of a *specific* Democrat who could lead this campaign in a way that would increase, rather than reduce, the odds of beating Trump, I think it is a risky bet.
"People need to know what Biden thinks is important, what his values are, what his boundaries are. Spoken plainly, over and over again."
I'd be interested in Jim's view of this, from his experience as a one-time White House speechwriter.
My take is that Presidents have to husband their efforts for speaking directly to the public. Most of the time the public isn't listening and doesn't care so his efforts will fall flat and he'll look weak and out of touch. The campaign hasn't really started yet and there will be plenty of opportunities for Biden to make his case next year. I trust he will do that and we will not lack for chances to hear him. But now? Why?
Yes, I'd like to hear from James on this, too. I respect your opinion, though I'd like to address the specific issue of timing of communications that you raised.
Perversely, I had Trump in mind as an example of a good communicator when I wrote this. For all his galaxy of faults, Trump may be the best person on earth at making his viewpoints widely known and adopted. Thirty percent of America believes what he says, not because of the logic of it, but because they believe in him and will follow where he leads. On the subjects of the Ukranian "perfect call", the "stolen election", and Democrats (and anyone else he doesn't like) being corrupt: his message is simple and repeated over and over and over. So often that a position on these issues is just taken as an article of faith by the faithful. He's a tsunami. How do you fight that? Certainly not by staying silent. IMO, anyhow. I don't think it's possible to overcommunicate mission and values; one looks for every opportunity to do so as a leader.
I will try to get back to the good questions from both of you about Biden's rhetoric. I think it has been "surprisingly" good — surprisingly because Biden's rhetoric was too stagey and flowery as a young man, and too burdened by awareness of his stuttering in his later years. But I think he has done a good job of making his case, as I noted briefly here https://fallows.substack.com/p/why-bidens-sotu-worked and here https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/was-bidens-state-union-speech-good/624174/ .
I will follow this up; my thanks.
In a recent interview on NPR, Steve Inskeep asked his guest whether President Biden is too old to run for re-election (I wish I knew who that was -- I tried to find it on the NPR website but failed). The two of them compared notes on why he shouldn't, mainly they thought it obvious that he is too old. What I asked myself was: Where is two-sidism when we need it? From where I sit, we are LUCKY to have Mr. Biden as President, and I for one look forward to his serving a second term. I'd say he has been brilliant when it comes to getting ANY of what he wants from that recalcitrant and boorish posse in the House (I am happy about that because what Biden wants is, of course, virtually the same as what *I* want -- because I too am a Democrat and stand for the same things Joe Biden stands for). Is there ANY other politician who could have blazed a trail so defiant of stupidity and short-sightedness as that of our very own "Joey" has done under the same burdensome circumstances? With bipartisan style and lack of bitterness, even. I have listened many times to Michelle Obama's reading of her book, BECOMING. Every time I get to her recalling the speech then-Senator Obama gave at the 2004 Democratic Party convention and the reception of it by the crowd, I still tear up when she states she could almost detect the crowd itself whispering, saying, shouting: "More of this ... more of this ... more of this." That is precisely how I feel about President Biden's current term in office: more of THIS.
Thank you. I heard an NPR interview between Inskeep and Rep Dean Phillips of Minnesota — whom I mention in a footnote. He is the one elected Democrat from the House or Senate who (as best I can tell) has said Biden should step down. But not even Phillips is proposing to run against him. As a matter of causation, no one can "prove" that a primary-election challenge to an incumbent leads to defeat in the general election. But that is certainly how the historical pattern has run. (1968, w McCarthy and RFK against LBJ, though extreme circumstances that time. 1980, with RFK against Jimmy Carter. 1992, with Buchanan against GHWB.)
It could be that the cycles of "conventional wisdom," and of what seems to be "yesterday's idea," could be turning in Biden's favor. So that ten months from now, when the campaigns are really getting serious, it will seem cliched to say "Biden is too old" and can instead seem like a fresh angle to say "actually he's using age and experience to his advantage."
I think that Biden, like Nancy Pelosi, has learned enormously from his experience. He is the best president since FDR, by a long shot. LBJ might have been the best but for Vietnam, which is a very big "but". And RFK never got a chance. And I say that as someone who thinks Biden is doing a terrible job on immigration, which is my pet issue, as I think the US population has grown well beyond sustainability, and I learned environmental science from John Holdren, in a class at UC Berkeley in 1975.
Biden is not too old. He crushed the State of the Union, all 90 minutes of it. He ran circles around McCarthy over the debt ceiling, pissing off the entire GOP. And on most issues, his judgment has been superb.
And he's just circled the world in five days, meeting with leaders, strengthening ties, and boosting our country's strength abroad.
How does an 80 year old man accomplish all this with such aplomb? Maybe he manages to have too much fun driving that Corvette his father gave him for his first wedding, and that just feeds his strengths!
Thank you! And, yes, inter alia I agree entirely about Biden's latest SOTU, which was well written and well delivered. (As a side note, I don't know who Biden's writers are, but they and he have found a very effective way to sound "eloquent" without seeming "speechy" or grandiloquent. )
Entire agree about outfoxing McCarthy and the GOP — and in general making judgment calls that look better over time rather than worse.