From afar, I follow American politics rather closely (even more so since the rise of T). And I am worried.
The question that baffles me most is, what do the 70 or 80 million always Trumpers expect to happen if their idol wins?
I get that they will have a ‘Now we’ve shown you’ moment.
But beyond that? Will Mexico finance a wonderful wall? Do they expect that all Blacks, Latinos, Jews, homosexuals, and emancipated women, just disappear? That cars grow fins again?
In the summer of 2022, I went on a 10,000 mile touristic road trip through 23 US states, mostly on secondary roads. I met friendly people everywhere.
The reality I experienced, and the reality presented by the media (and 80 million votes) are very difficult to reconcile.
Is there anything Trump could do to alienate his followers? Would going to prison help?
I’m sure you’ll have valuable input to all those questions, and many more.
A happy New Year to you personally and your family, and to the American Nation as a whole.
I followed the link in your post to your 9/3 post on your Our Towns site. I think the civic momentum you discuss may apply to Youngstown, Ohio--I hear from family friends that the city is slowly getting it's act together. Sadly, Youngstown's Pa, neighbor, my home town of New Castle, is not, to judge from a recent visit. The once vibrant downtown remains the wasteland it has been for decades. In The Unwinding, I think George Packer traced the roots of the Rust Belt to the collapse of Youngstown Steel in the 70s. But New Castle was already on its way down in the late 50s. I think New Castle may have been a canary in the coal mine.
My hair is on fire, as well. But I am calmed by your having a reader who well remembers the 1948 Dewey-Truman election. We will not be ignorant of history in 2024.
Jim, looking forward to your upcoming history-in-real-time. This may be even more a time of drama and decision than 2016. Both Biden and Trump are the oldest candidates ever, and one or both may not make it to the finish line. This time there may be 3rd party candidates who gain enough traction to affect the results -- several of my friends are active and impassioned supporters of RFK, Jr. Cornel West may sway the election in Georgia, especially, and who knows what Manchin will do? None of them will win, but it is not hard to imagine a really problematic result. Echoes of 1860 or 1824...
But, as you and Deb have been chronicling so well, it is a whole 'nother world at the local level, where government and civil society actually function. That is certainly true here in Massachusetts. And which level of government has the most bearing on our actual lives? I teach government and politics in community college and in prison, and it is clear that local/state government has much more effect on their lives (especially in jail...).
How does the federal government impact day-to-day life in fact? I think it has the most impact on the cultural and psychic levels -- social incivility and media craziness -- than as regards laws and policy. I leave aside international affairs, which is very important to me but not to most Americans. Trump (or RFK Jr) would be disastrous internationally, and their foreign policies would cost far more lives than would any domestic measures.
Keep up the writing . You are a reasoned lifeline for me. At our age we can appreciate historical depth...best, Randy Foote
At the start of the New Year I, like many of you, look forward to what might be and what I want for my friends and family. Over the last few years I’ve also focused on gratitude.
Jim, I’m always grateful for your writing and thinking and for the effort you make to share it with us. All the best in the New Year to you and Deb, and to all who support a stronger Union.
Jim In my 90 years I have found that the presidential predictions, nine months before an election, often have turned out wrong and, on occasion, laughable.
I vividly recall the 1948 election, when Gallup and others stopped polling weeks before the election. In fact, some of Dewey’s entourage had already bought houses in Washington awaiting his inauguration.
TV pundits, on election night, were cautious, as Truman was receiving a higher than anticipated vote.
In a four candidate race, Trump won in a startling upset.
I recall, in 1968, how the presidential election was topsy turvy. McCarthy challenged LBJ in New Hampshire. LBJ announced that he would not run for re-election. Robert Kennedy entered the race. The night that RBK won the California primary, he was assassinated.
The 1968 Democratic presidential convention in Chicago was a shambles. Mayor Daley made sure that protestors were treated harshly. Humphrey was the Democratic nominee against a tremendously disruptive backdrop. A few days later Nixon swooned into Chicago with large cheering crowds.
The Nixon Humphrey race tightened in the final days. Vietnam was a key issue. Humphrey was crippled by LBJ’s stance. Finally, a Humphrey breakthrough on Vietnam.
If the campaign had continued for another week, it seems possible that Humphrey might have won. It didn’t.
In 2000 the Bush vs. Gore election was a squeaker. It finally came down to Florida, with its ‘hanging chads’ and other quirks in the voting system.
The Florida election came down to court challenges. James Baker, a ‘take no prisoners’ lawyer, stepped forward to lead the Bush fight. Baker was well organized, even recruiting a Brooks Brother-clad group of New York Republicans to create havoc when the votes were being recalculated.
Warren Christopher headed the Gore electoral battle. Christopher was a double-breasted gentleman who, as Under Secretary in the Carter administration, waited in Algeria for the release of the American hostages that Iran had held for 444 days. [They were released minutes after Reagan was sworn in.]
I was on a committee with Christopher. He was an intelligent gentleman, but not a person I would choose to back me up in a street fight. By contrast, Baker would be excellent with a machete, if he was engaged in a winner take all fight.
I had heard that Baker had volunteered to led the Bush fight against Gore because he was incensed that Gore had attacked him personally during the campaign. I had occasion to personally ask Baker about this. Without hesitation, he replied “Yup.”
My opinion is that Baker outgunned Christopher. With the Electoral College deadline approaching, the matter was ‘injudicially’ taken to the Supreme Court. There, with Sandra O’Connor a key swing vote, the court, in a ruling that was described as not providing a judicial precedent, gave the election to Bush. I disagreed at the time with the procedure and still do. Gore officially acknowledged Bush’s election.
Jim has covered the curious final days of the Clinton/Trump election in which Hillary’s e-mails played a bizarre (and inappropriate) role.
I haven’t a clue as to who will win the 2024 presidential election. For thinking, fact-based voters, the choice between the two likely candidates is obvious: Biden with his character and accomplishments
Is far superior to Trump’s 91 indictments, past presidential track record, and his bloviating about ‘his justice and revenge’ when he returns to the White House and his first day as ‘dictator.’
This is likely to be a dirtier campaign than the scandalous Adams/Jefferson campaign in 1800. More mud will be slung by the Trumpublicans than Hurricane Sandy piled up on the East Coast.
There are likely to be ‘explosive’ issues that, while not directly related to the appropriate governance of the United States, might sway undecided voters.
Cinch the saddle on your bucking bronco, the 2024 presidential campaign will be a rough rodeo ride.
Thanks for the reminder that "polls say what might happen, but what happens is up to us," So true, and so important to keep in mind. I'm looking forward to the series, I'm sure it will be helpful and not just alarmist so thanks for that as well. I've been surprised and alarmed at reports of how many "likely voters" are unaware of so much that's so important. I read that a substantial minority don't even know that Trump is the almost certain Republican nominee. Please everyone, do even one small bit to help - write postcards (for my favorite, Postcards to Voters, email join@TonyTheDemocrat.org), give $$ if you have it, write letters to the editor requesting more substantive coverage, talk about it to others in as constructive a way as you can. Etc, etc, etc. 309 days and counting...
Merci, Jim, for this opening salvo of thoughtful synthesis-as-overture. I am old enough to think of 1968, 1980, and 2000/01 alongside 2016 and 2020/21 for reference and comparison... and while the next ten months may hold surprises that suddenly change the political calculus in ways that we cannot anticipate, the underlying factors are far less mutable and, as such, we'll see where we land... Hopefully, as you suggest, standing tall...
Before the election of trump, I'd always regarded calling something "unprecedented" as wondrous, something potentially worthy of emulating. But the news media's use of that word to describe the speech, manners, decisions, and actions of the small-minded person we elected to represent us to the world took that word away from me.
Knowing you will be an essential media critic during this period. Hoping your peers in media take notice. Hoping beyond hope they act on your advise. My 'forward' and 'share' buttons are relocated to the center panel, with lights on 'em.
Thanks, James! We can expect the customarily breathless horserace or other sports analogies from the usual outlets. The game on the table looks more like JENGA to me. I’ll be reading and recommending you, Heather, and Joyce for perspective.
Can’t speak for anyone else, but I’m scared. In general, “the media,” upon which so much of the eventual outcome depends, seems to have learned nothing.
From afar, I follow American politics rather closely (even more so since the rise of T). And I am worried.
The question that baffles me most is, what do the 70 or 80 million always Trumpers expect to happen if their idol wins?
I get that they will have a ‘Now we’ve shown you’ moment.
But beyond that? Will Mexico finance a wonderful wall? Do they expect that all Blacks, Latinos, Jews, homosexuals, and emancipated women, just disappear? That cars grow fins again?
In the summer of 2022, I went on a 10,000 mile touristic road trip through 23 US states, mostly on secondary roads. I met friendly people everywhere.
The reality I experienced, and the reality presented by the media (and 80 million votes) are very difficult to reconcile.
Is there anything Trump could do to alienate his followers? Would going to prison help?
I’m sure you’ll have valuable input to all those questions, and many more.
A happy New Year to you personally and your family, and to the American Nation as a whole.
I followed the link in your post to your 9/3 post on your Our Towns site. I think the civic momentum you discuss may apply to Youngstown, Ohio--I hear from family friends that the city is slowly getting it's act together. Sadly, Youngstown's Pa, neighbor, my home town of New Castle, is not, to judge from a recent visit. The once vibrant downtown remains the wasteland it has been for decades. In The Unwinding, I think George Packer traced the roots of the Rust Belt to the collapse of Youngstown Steel in the 70s. But New Castle was already on its way down in the late 50s. I think New Castle may have been a canary in the coal mine.
My hair is on fire, as well. But I am calmed by your having a reader who well remembers the 1948 Dewey-Truman election. We will not be ignorant of history in 2024.
Jim, looking forward to your upcoming history-in-real-time. This may be even more a time of drama and decision than 2016. Both Biden and Trump are the oldest candidates ever, and one or both may not make it to the finish line. This time there may be 3rd party candidates who gain enough traction to affect the results -- several of my friends are active and impassioned supporters of RFK, Jr. Cornel West may sway the election in Georgia, especially, and who knows what Manchin will do? None of them will win, but it is not hard to imagine a really problematic result. Echoes of 1860 or 1824...
But, as you and Deb have been chronicling so well, it is a whole 'nother world at the local level, where government and civil society actually function. That is certainly true here in Massachusetts. And which level of government has the most bearing on our actual lives? I teach government and politics in community college and in prison, and it is clear that local/state government has much more effect on their lives (especially in jail...).
How does the federal government impact day-to-day life in fact? I think it has the most impact on the cultural and psychic levels -- social incivility and media craziness -- than as regards laws and policy. I leave aside international affairs, which is very important to me but not to most Americans. Trump (or RFK Jr) would be disastrous internationally, and their foreign policies would cost far more lives than would any domestic measures.
Keep up the writing . You are a reasoned lifeline for me. At our age we can appreciate historical depth...best, Randy Foote
At the start of the New Year I, like many of you, look forward to what might be and what I want for my friends and family. Over the last few years I’ve also focused on gratitude.
Jim, I’m always grateful for your writing and thinking and for the effort you make to share it with us. All the best in the New Year to you and Deb, and to all who support a stronger Union.
Jim In my 90 years I have found that the presidential predictions, nine months before an election, often have turned out wrong and, on occasion, laughable.
I vividly recall the 1948 election, when Gallup and others stopped polling weeks before the election. In fact, some of Dewey’s entourage had already bought houses in Washington awaiting his inauguration.
TV pundits, on election night, were cautious, as Truman was receiving a higher than anticipated vote.
In a four candidate race, Trump won in a startling upset.
I recall, in 1968, how the presidential election was topsy turvy. McCarthy challenged LBJ in New Hampshire. LBJ announced that he would not run for re-election. Robert Kennedy entered the race. The night that RBK won the California primary, he was assassinated.
The 1968 Democratic presidential convention in Chicago was a shambles. Mayor Daley made sure that protestors were treated harshly. Humphrey was the Democratic nominee against a tremendously disruptive backdrop. A few days later Nixon swooned into Chicago with large cheering crowds.
The Nixon Humphrey race tightened in the final days. Vietnam was a key issue. Humphrey was crippled by LBJ’s stance. Finally, a Humphrey breakthrough on Vietnam.
If the campaign had continued for another week, it seems possible that Humphrey might have won. It didn’t.
In 2000 the Bush vs. Gore election was a squeaker. It finally came down to Florida, with its ‘hanging chads’ and other quirks in the voting system.
The Florida election came down to court challenges. James Baker, a ‘take no prisoners’ lawyer, stepped forward to lead the Bush fight. Baker was well organized, even recruiting a Brooks Brother-clad group of New York Republicans to create havoc when the votes were being recalculated.
Warren Christopher headed the Gore electoral battle. Christopher was a double-breasted gentleman who, as Under Secretary in the Carter administration, waited in Algeria for the release of the American hostages that Iran had held for 444 days. [They were released minutes after Reagan was sworn in.]
I was on a committee with Christopher. He was an intelligent gentleman, but not a person I would choose to back me up in a street fight. By contrast, Baker would be excellent with a machete, if he was engaged in a winner take all fight.
I had heard that Baker had volunteered to led the Bush fight against Gore because he was incensed that Gore had attacked him personally during the campaign. I had occasion to personally ask Baker about this. Without hesitation, he replied “Yup.”
My opinion is that Baker outgunned Christopher. With the Electoral College deadline approaching, the matter was ‘injudicially’ taken to the Supreme Court. There, with Sandra O’Connor a key swing vote, the court, in a ruling that was described as not providing a judicial precedent, gave the election to Bush. I disagreed at the time with the procedure and still do. Gore officially acknowledged Bush’s election.
Jim has covered the curious final days of the Clinton/Trump election in which Hillary’s e-mails played a bizarre (and inappropriate) role.
I haven’t a clue as to who will win the 2024 presidential election. For thinking, fact-based voters, the choice between the two likely candidates is obvious: Biden with his character and accomplishments
Is far superior to Trump’s 91 indictments, past presidential track record, and his bloviating about ‘his justice and revenge’ when he returns to the White House and his first day as ‘dictator.’
This is likely to be a dirtier campaign than the scandalous Adams/Jefferson campaign in 1800. More mud will be slung by the Trumpublicans than Hurricane Sandy piled up on the East Coast.
There are likely to be ‘explosive’ issues that, while not directly related to the appropriate governance of the United States, might sway undecided voters.
Cinch the saddle on your bucking bronco, the 2024 presidential campaign will be a rough rodeo ride.
Thanks for the reminder that "polls say what might happen, but what happens is up to us," So true, and so important to keep in mind. I'm looking forward to the series, I'm sure it will be helpful and not just alarmist so thanks for that as well. I've been surprised and alarmed at reports of how many "likely voters" are unaware of so much that's so important. I read that a substantial minority don't even know that Trump is the almost certain Republican nominee. Please everyone, do even one small bit to help - write postcards (for my favorite, Postcards to Voters, email join@TonyTheDemocrat.org), give $$ if you have it, write letters to the editor requesting more substantive coverage, talk about it to others in as constructive a way as you can. Etc, etc, etc. 309 days and counting...
Merci, Jim, for this opening salvo of thoughtful synthesis-as-overture. I am old enough to think of 1968, 1980, and 2000/01 alongside 2016 and 2020/21 for reference and comparison... and while the next ten months may hold surprises that suddenly change the political calculus in ways that we cannot anticipate, the underlying factors are far less mutable and, as such, we'll see where we land... Hopefully, as you suggest, standing tall...
Looking forward to your contributions to our understanding as I have for so long ... all the best!
Wonderful commentary, thanks for these pearls
Before the election of trump, I'd always regarded calling something "unprecedented" as wondrous, something potentially worthy of emulating. But the news media's use of that word to describe the speech, manners, decisions, and actions of the small-minded person we elected to represent us to the world took that word away from me.
T
Knowing you will be an essential media critic during this period. Hoping your peers in media take notice. Hoping beyond hope they act on your advise. My 'forward' and 'share' buttons are relocated to the center panel, with lights on 'em.
Thanks, James! We can expect the customarily breathless horserace or other sports analogies from the usual outlets. The game on the table looks more like JENGA to me. I’ll be reading and recommending you, Heather, and Joyce for perspective.
Can’t speak for anyone else, but I’m scared. In general, “the media,” upon which so much of the eventual outcome depends, seems to have learned nothing.
I look forward to your series! Here’s hoping for a better outcome than 2016. I believe the stakes are much higher this time.