J Ann Selzer's polling history is exemplary. Her Des Moines poll has Harris up 3% in IA. She has explained her methodology as exclusively forward looking with strict criteria for identifying likely voters. Her polls are less likely to suffer model error than most polls that depend to some greater or lesser extent on past performance. In …
J Ann Selzer's polling history is exemplary. Her Des Moines poll has Harris up 3% in IA. She has explained her methodology as exclusively forward looking with strict criteria for identifying likely voters. Her polls are less likely to suffer model error than most polls that depend to some greater or lesser extent on past performance. In a unique election it's risky to assume demographic groups will perform today based on how they performed in the past. Could be wrong but I remain convinced that Harris is under polling perhaps by 3-4-5%. I see the IA poll as supporting my opinion.
I have followed Selzer's polls over the years and know her reputation and accuracy. I will be surprised if KH ended up actually carrying Iowa. But the fact that's being reported as close has obvious implications for the neighboring states in general and for what the polling may have been systematically missing this year.
J Ann Selzer's polling history is exemplary. Her Des Moines poll has Harris up 3% in IA. She has explained her methodology as exclusively forward looking with strict criteria for identifying likely voters. Her polls are less likely to suffer model error than most polls that depend to some greater or lesser extent on past performance. In a unique election it's risky to assume demographic groups will perform today based on how they performed in the past. Could be wrong but I remain convinced that Harris is under polling perhaps by 3-4-5%. I see the IA poll as supporting my opinion.
I have followed Selzer's polls over the years and know her reputation and accuracy. I will be surprised if KH ended up actually carrying Iowa. But the fact that's being reported as close has obvious implications for the neighboring states in general and for what the polling may have been systematically missing this year.
And then they voted. Very depressing. I fear for the country.