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Alan Goldhammer's avatar

Finally an area that have some expertise in for better or worse. When I was still in research at NIH, I had experience with a number of different pathogens and toxins. I had my own "lab leak" when a beaker of whooping cough bacteria shattered splashing me with a (un)healthy dose of log phase growth. One of my colleagues came to help and noted that this is not a particularly rare occurrence; stuff happens. Fortunately the strain we were growing was an attenuated vaccine strain and I just had to go home toss my clothes in the washing machine and take a nice long shower. I've also done some consulting on these issues including those related to the Biological Weapons Convention.

I've read almost everything there is to read on this topic and also know some people who have been to Wuhan. As far as I can tell, not being privy to national security, it is a complex issue. However, the big picture of whether it was or was not a lab leak is to me irrelevant! The Wuhan group has been researching corona viruses for a considerable period of time, many of them endemic to China where there are a number of animal hosts. One can 'confidently' assume that they have a large collection of corona virus specimens of various geno- and phenotypes. The location of the large 'wet animal' market in the proximity to the research institute poses further complications since a number animals who are potential hosts of Covid were trafficked there. We do not have reliable evidence about the presence or absence of the virus at the market (though some papers have pointed to this and at least one Chinese paper has disappeared). Thus, there is a real conundrum that likely will never be resolved unless we get more data/information from the Wuhan researchers as to the role of the lab versus a zoonotic outbreak.

It's worth remembering that two earlier corona virus outbreaks, MERS and the original SARS, came from natural sources (not to mention the episodic outbreaks of Ebola and more recently Marburg which are far more dangerous than Covid). Nature's own mixing bowl leads to problematic viral infections such as the great Spanish Flu and the 1957-58 Asian Flu (which had higher fatality than Covid). Of course none of these remotely rival The Black Death that devastated Europe in the mid 14th century and definitely was NOT a lab leak.

We will continue to see novel infectious diseases of various virulence in the future. The good thing is we have much better tools to deal with them but it will require increased vigilance and research. I'll leave it at that. Anyone who is interest can go back and look at my archive of COVID-19 reports (just Google my name and COVID-19 if interested).

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Michael Green's avatar

This is a magnificent analysis. Thank you.

It occurs to me that to republicans, we might add Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

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